Business conditions in the I quarter-quarter 2009 decreased compared to IV-2008. This can be seen from the tendency Index Business (ITB)-I quarter of 2009 decreased from 102.19 a 96.91 in the quarter I-2008.

This is said by the Head of BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik) Rusman Heriawan in a press meet in his office, Jakarta, Jumat (15/5/2009).

"Industry is happy in the financial sector is industry, because if the foreign sector is experiencing a sharp decline, the financial sector in Indonesia is still a record high profit," he said.

Most of the economic sector has decreased the value of the index sectors except electricity, gas, and water index 105.38; the financial sector, leasing and services company that index 107.88, and the services sector index is 102.96.

On the processing industry experienced a decline in business with the most sharp-index value of 89.86.

"The prospects for business in the quarter-II in 2009, seen from the estimated index of 98.35, which means that in general business conditions in the quarter will still decline," said Rusman.

Rusman said most of the economic sector in the quarter-II in 2009 is estimated to decrease sectors except mining and extraction; sector electricity, gas and water supply and services sector. "Sector is estimated to decrease is the largest business processing industry," his him.

Indonesia immediately set countries' Paradise 'tax or tax haven. Every country has the criteria for the determination of the tax haven country.

"We are preparing a list of countries which enter into a tax haven category. In time we will no longer publish the regulations. Act actually ordered," said Director General of Taxes Darmin Nasution at the Ministry of Finance Building, Jakarta, Friday (24/4/2009).

Darmin add criteria tax haven countries likely will be published in the Regulations of the Finance Minister, while the list will be determined through the Director General of the decision. Criteria defined at this time Indonesia different possibilities with the criteria specified tax haven country.

"The criteria may vary between one country to another country. It makes the country a set charge 50% or less of their country, then he will be a tax haven. There is also a 60%. China is not one of the 30%, Japan and Korea does not use percentages but he says if Dairi less 50% tax charge is a haven, "Darmin dust.

Indonesia now is considering to use the percentage or rate. Law on tax already set about the problem, but do not have the details.

"Income Tax Act we are not wide enough to give space to what we can we will set more if the country signed in tax haven. One of the Act says that we have concerning the sale and purchase shares, and so forth. The issue is now developing more from a sale and purchase of ownership shares of the company, "said Darmin.

Darmin added, countries or tax haven tax haven near the play-rate tax rate with the surrounding countries.

"It certainly bears the loss not only receipt of revenues in some cases but also economic activities. For the state around that does not follow-follow-up. Yes the tax haven is created for the purpose of interesting activities and funds to countries that deliberately in the design specifically for that," explain again.

OECD has been previously released countries that enter into tax havens blacklist. Neighboring countries Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, including in the black list. Other countries who enter into a tax haven blacklist OECD are: Costa Rica and Uruguay. OECD point these countries do not respect international regulations concerning taxation.

Shares closed down again in the global red zone today, Nikkei -4.92% (Japanese bond rose to the highest level since September), Hang Seng -3.37% (a concern to investors, HSBC operations, the dividend will be reduced and the need for injections fresh funds), and Strait Times -3.25%. 

A lot of sentiment that the stock looks spiritless today as the decline in oil prices, Australia's unemployment data, sales machine Japan retail sales and the sluggish U.S.. 

JCI own closed weakened 43 points to 1343 levels (-3.13%) with a trading value of Rp 1.46 trillion. Consumer sector (+0.26%) is the only sector which both closed, while the mining sector (-4.53%) and infrastructure (-4.68%) are the two sectors that contribute most to the drop in the index. 

Since the establishment of the first session, the index is always in the red zone. Reopened until the transaction is also the second trading session, the index is not a lot of changes, indek had touched the highest level in 1358. AMRT (Alfa Mart), which just opened this week listing in the level and Rp400 level had increased to Rp 420, but the closing session on the second level in the closed Rp395 (stagnant). 

BUMI While yesterday was a record trading value of Rp 925 billion closed again weakened auto rejection level to 425 with trading value of Rp 57 billion. Some blue chip stocks closed good today is UNVR (+1.87%), PNBN (+1.75%), and LPKR (+1.2%).

Until the end of 2009, BI rate can be predicted until the level of 7 to 7.5% in the middle of a decrease in inflation due to a decrease in various commodity prices and oil prices. 

This is said by the head of Danareksa Research Purbaya Yudhi sadewa in the event one day seminar "Economic Outlook Banking & Property: In the Middle Heavy Global Financial Crisis" at Menara BTN, Jakarta, Wednesday (14/1/2009). 

"At present we do not need to fear inflation because the price of fuel is down, food down, a lot of rice, so this year's inflation can be 6% or slightly lower," he said. 

The government in 2009 estimated the rate of inflation will be down 6.2% from 11.06% inflation in 2008. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia's inflation rate is estimated at 6 plus minus 1% in 2009. 

"Theoretically with inflation such BI Rate can go down to 7-7,5% level. If they (BI) BI Rate can dare 7% if they do not dare to be 7.5%," he said. 

In addition, for economic growth in 2009 is still able to reach 5% or are in the government's target range of 4,5-5%. 

"If the stimulus can be run well and the interest rate can be pressed to lower the 5% economic growth is not something difficult to achieve. So it is good both for the economic impact," his him.

The decline BI Rate still should be able to continue until the level of 7.5%. This is following the trend in almost all the world who troop down the interest rate reference. 
  
This is said in the Knowledge Sharing Aviliania PT Permodalan Nasional Madani with the theme of Economic Up date View Over 2008 - Outlook 2009, Impact and Strategies for MSMEs and Cooperatives, in Arthaloka Building, Jalan Jenderal Sudirman, Jakarta, Friday (9/1/2009) . 
  
"If other countries the interest rate central banks even have a zero per cent. The other countries sharia while we are still capitalist. So, BI is still possible BI Rate down 7.5 percent," said Aviliani. 
  
According Aviliani, economic conditions, social, political and Indonesia at this time to support the decline in BI Rate to 7.5% level. Especially for the political situation, India can be relatively better than other Asian countries. 

"From Indonesia's most politically secure than other countries such as Malaysia, Taiwan and Filiphina. Banking is also safer because we do not have the bailout," said Independent BRI this. 
  
Meanwhile, Commissioner of PT PNM Hermanto Siregar also states fall BI Rate 50 basis to be 8.75% is still far from ideal. Hermanto expectations even lower again, that is 7%. 

"Ideally, and 7 percent actually penurunannya already started in October 2008 revealed that for the sudden will not influence," said vice-Rector of this IPB. 
  
Hermanto add to the BI rate 7%, and a number one digit inflation, he is optimistic the economic growth can be targeted to what the government this year is 5%. 

"Projected growth of 5.5% still can still be achieved," he said. 
  
Achievement, the supplement should also be supported Hermanto consumption growth 5.4% and 3.4% investment. "And imports are lower than export," he said

PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BNI) capital increase children's business is moving in the insurance sector PT BNI Life Insurance. BNI is now controlled 85.11% shares in BNI Life, which increased from the original 69.11%. 

BNI inject funds of Rp 99,999 billion, equivalent to 53,207,500 units of shares. Such statements from the representatives of Division II leaders Communications Company and Kesekretariatan BNI, RPH Noegroho in the openness of information to the Indonesian Stock Exchange, as quoted detikFinance, Saturday (27/12/2008). 

Addition of capital with consideration to maintain the level of solvency company RBC (Risk-Based Capital) at least 120%. 

This is to meet government regulations No. 39 in 2008 on top of changes in both government regulations No. 73 of 1992 on Providing business companiesare (Article 6b), which sounds an insurance company must have capital of at least Rp 100 billion at the latest 31 December 2010. 

Addition of capital is also to the development of business outlets such as the development of banncassurance became 500 outlets, opening sales offices in 10 major cities, the development of sharia, the development of IT terintegerasi, office buildings and expansion of the center. 

In addition to BNI shareholders BNI Life is YDD Swadharma 8.46%, YKP BNI 5.94% and 0.49% YKK Jiwasraya. Currently, the total capital BNI Life of Rp 102,736 billion, equal to 102,736,000 units of shares.

Owners of vehicles in the U.S. is now paying the price of fuel cheapest in the last five years. The price of fuel will last up to the Christmas holiday weekend. 

This such as Reuters, Friday (26/12/2008), the price of the national average for unleaded is U.S. $ 1.65 per gallon. One gallon = 3.8 liters, so that if converted into local currency rupiah with $ 11.000/US the price of gas in the U.S. of Rp 4,776 per liter. 

This price is lower than the premium price in Indonesia is now Rp 5,000 per liter. The price of fuel in the U.S. this week down half a cent compared to the previous week and less than U.S. $ 1.33 compared to the same period last year. 

The price of fuel in the U.S. this week after the lowest price at Christmas 2003 in the level of U.S. $ 1.49 per gallon. Announcement of the price of fuel in the U.S. for this weekend, based on a survey conducted by the Energy Information Administration all refueling station. 

The collapse of the price of fuel in the U.S. is the impact of the decrease in demand due to weakening U.S. economy that continues to linger. 

World oil prices in Asian trade on Friday, the market is (26/12/2008) experienced post-Rebound fallen to levels terendahnya in the last four years before the Christmas holiday two days ago. 

The price of light oil for February delivery reference markets of New York rose 93 cents to U.S. $ 36.28 per barrel. On the previous trading last Wednesday (24/12/2008) price of oil is down 3.63 to U.S. $ 35.35 perbarel position.

Similarly, with oil prices of Brent North Sea shipping in February to the trade in London, up U.S. $ 1.04 to U.S. $ 37.65 per barrel. Previous closing on Wednesday (24/12/2008) the price of oil is down U.S. $ 3.75 to U.S. $ 36.61 per barrel, which is the lowest position since July 2004. 

EIA recorded the highest fuel prices in the U.S. this weekend for the region countries to the west. San Francisco is a city termahal for gasoline sales of U.S. $ 1.82 per gallon. 

While the Rocky Mountain region to sell the lowest gasoline price of U.S. $ 1.53 per gallon. Likewise with Houston that sell refuel at cheaper prices to U.S. $ 1.48 per gallon. 

The price of gasoline in the Seattle area is U.S. $ 1.81 per gallon, the Miami U.S. $ 1.80 per gallon, Los Angeles U.S. $ 1.77 per gallon, New York City U.S. $ 1.71 per gallon, Cleveland U.S. $ 1, 64 per gallon, the Boston U.S. $ 1.63 per gallon and Denver, U.S. $ 1.54 per gallon. 

Meanwhile, the average price diesel fuel (diesel) also experienced a decrease of 5.6 cents to U.S. $ 2.37 per gallon. The price of diesel is the lowest since August 2005.

New England state to sell diesel termahal U.S. $ 2.69 per gallon, and cheapest on the Gulf Coast of U.S. $ 2.31 per gallon.

Joint Stock Price Index (IHSG) have two days in succession in this weekend impairment. IHSG will try to reduce the pressure that is sharp. 

One of the factors that can reduce the pressure on the trade IHSG Wednesday (19/11/2008) Rebound is what happened in Wall Street. 

In trading Tuesday (18/11/2008), Dow Jones index appreciated 151.17 points (1.83%) to a level of 8424.75, the Standard & Poor's 500 appreciated thin 8.37 points (0.98%) to a level of 859 , 12 and the Nasdaq stronger thin only 1.22 points (0008%) to a level of 1483.27. 

Although churn was sharp, shares in the Wall Street Rebound can be no announcement after Hewlett-Packard (HP), which recorded good performance, muted the negative sentiment from Citigroup are exhausted. 

While the stock market opening in Japan on Wednesday morning is relatively flat with only terkoreksi thin 0.09 points or 7.79 points to 8320.62 position. 

Market in the country, will utilize the action of selective buying shares that the price is below.Movement of rupiah and Bakrie stock sentiment will also be coloring IHSG movement. 

In the closing trading stock on Tuesday yesterday (18/11/2008) IHSG anjlok 47,071 points (3.81%) to 1189.862. 

The following recommendations shares of the company's securities. 

Optima Securities 

Index back into terkoreksi 47 points to 1189 as Asian stock Hang Seng and Nikkei -4.5% -2.2%.IHSG approaching the lowest point in October and in the level of 1089. All the technical indicators are still giving bearish signal has not been any signs of reversal in the short term. Impairment still further potential return movement, with a range 1.120-1.230. 

Panin Securities 

In trading yesterday, IHSG -3.81% slump following the regional movement of stock, which is negative following the recession that occurred in Japan, and several other countries. As Japan and Singapore are the two main trade partner of Indonesia. Suffered recessionary effects of the country, will threaten the automated export performance and economic growth. Global investors are still awaiting quarterly GDP growth rate 3 of the few large countries, such as the United States which will be announced next week. 

In addition to regional factors, anjloknya value of the rupiah also be negative sentiment for the market. Along with the lack of positive sentiment, today we estimate for the foreseeable future IHSG will still be moving toward weakening support in 1106.

Joint Stock Price Index (IHSG) is estimated to be calm again on next year. Driven by the plantation sector, energy and construction, IHSG expected on gallant re-2009.

It is delivered Recapital Securities head of research Poltak Hotradero One of the new Economic Outlook 2009 at the Shangri-La Hotel, Jakarta, on Tuesday (18/11/2008). 

"In front of IHSG will be back to normal. IHSG last three years, was dominant two sectors, namely energy and plantations. Currently, two more rest this sector alone," he said. 

In addition to the two sectors, Poltak also see a sector that can sustain IHSG, namely the construction sector. Moreover, the vice president Jusuf Kalla often encourage the acceleration of construction such as ports, toll roads, and generating electricity. 

"If the roads, restore normal capital market to the more conventional such as the first, so do not be too bad," he said. 

For Poltak, the construction sector still has great potential. Change money in this sector each day could reach Rp 10 trillion. 

Not only the construction sector, the other pillar of the economy could be next year is the telecommunications and transportation will still be two-digit growth next year. Similarly, the prospects of the banking world will still be good in 2009. 

"So next year people will go back to things that are conventional, all consolidated this year and will be felt next year," he said.

Indonesian Rupiah close this weekend in the position of an 11,500-per U.S. dollar. Weakening rupiah calm Rebound in line with its market share is limited. 

In the closing trading forex 17:00 WIB, Friday (14/11/2008) data showed CNBC rupiah terkoreksi only 25 points to 11,525 positions per U.S. dollar. This was the day rupiah weakened to 11,840 per U.S. dollar. 

Meanwhile, the government weakening rupiah rate is still 'okay' compared to other local currencies. 

"The weakening rupiah, not only the view from one perspective, but viewed from the perspective wide. Korea, which has U.S. $ 500 billion in neracanya, and the currency weakened to 39 percent, while the rupiah weakened our new 19 percent, it is still okay," said Finance minister ad interim Sofyan Djalil after Friday prayers in the building of Garuda, Jakarta, Friday (14/11/2008). 

It was similar after the vice president Jusuf Kalla on Friday in the office. According to the vice president, weakening the value of local currency also occurred in some countries as a result of reduced liquidity. 

"Because the world of dollars dry up. Because the difficult search shrink the U.S. dollar. But the local exchange rate weakened, this is only the supply and demand alone. No one can hit," he said. 

Although there in almost all countries, but emphasized the government Sofyan remain alert to monitor a weaker rupiah. No half-hearted, the government will not tolerate the slightest error, including a come-from Rumor Rumor outstanding. 

"In the unstable conditions such as current, zero tolerance for error. All Rumor must be serious by the government. We will always be aware," Sofyan said.

After two days in succession affected by the action of selling high, stock markets in Wall Street may finally clear a moment of pressure. Investors showed little reaction to a press conference the first elected President Barack Obama. Obama promised to deal with the immediate financial crisis and economic support package that has been issued. "We face the biggest challenges in our economy. We will have to act quickly to resolve it," Obama said in a press conference the first on 7 November 2008 in Chicago as quoted from the AFP, on Saturday (8/11/2008). Market began to bring a little hope, despite data showing the U.S. economy is still frightening. October unemployment data as much as 6.5% of the highest in the last 14 years, which gives a signal of recession in the world economy. Investors in Wall Street also expects no recovery in the stock market in November this month after a sharp decline in the previous. During October, the Dow Jones recorded a decline worst since August 1998, the S & P worst since October 1987 and the Nasdaq worst since February 2001. In the closing trading Friday U.S. time (7/11/2008) Dow Jones index up 2.85% or 248.02 points to 8943.81 position. Similarly, the Nasdaq technology index rose 2.41% or 38.7 points to be 1647.4 and the S & P 500 rose 2.89% or 26.11 points to be 930.99. Investors now focus on the policy even though the Fed has cut interest rates to be 1%. Markets see the Fed policy will still do more to help economic recovery.

World crude oil prices, which have increased, again fall sharply. The broker again to get the signs that reinforce the perception that world oil demand will fall sharply.

In trading Monday (3/11/2008) in New York, light type of oil for delivery in December fall to the 3.90 dollar level to U.S. $ 63.91 per barrel.

In London, Brent type of oil delivery in December also fall 4.84 to the dollar level of U.S. $ 60.48 per barrel.

"It's destroying the price of oil today is data showing that U.S. manufacturing activity during October decreased to the low level in the last 26 years, which means increasing concern weakening demand," said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading analyst, as quoted from Reuters, Tuesday (4/11/2008).

"Manufacture should be a major indicator of demand for oil, but if this sector is weakened, then there must struggle hard to keep oil demand still rising," he added.

U.S. factor activity, the barometer for future oil demand, down sharply in line financial crisis. The Institute for Supply Management revealed, the national index of U.S. factory activity declined to 38.9 for October, compared to 43.5 for September.

Decrease in demand is also likely occur in Europe. European Commission warns that the previous worst financial crisis in a decade has been to Europe falling down the economic recession.

"European bring more focus to the demand for energy, where the weakening global economic growth provides a bleak prospect," said Mike Fitzpatrick of MF Global, as quoted from the AFP.

The price of crude oil is estimated to stand still at the level of U.S. $ 60-70 per barrel until the end of the year. OPEC cutting oil production will not produce unpredictable results.

According to the former OPEC Governor for Indonesia while Pertamina Commissioner Maizar Rahman, the possibility of large price ICP (Indonesian Crude Price) took a slip to below U.S. $ 60 per barrel.

"Until the end of this year I predicted the price of oil still around U.S. $ 60-70 per barrel. Could it even below," What is said between meetings with Commission VII at the parliament building / DPR, Jakarta, on Monday (27/10/2008).

He explains, in normal circumstances it should be cutting oil production of OPEC members will affect the price of oil. But with the current condition is not normal, then OPEC this step can be futile.

"Now is not normal because the condition affected the financial crisis. So in the market happens to be the release of oil in a large-scale, and this effect to the price. I think OPEC cutting effect," he said.

Oil price movements that do not normally have occurred since mid-2007. Where is the oil price is no longer determined the level of supply and demand but speculation.

Meanwhile, since mid-2008, the most influential factor is the financial condition of the U.S..

"Therefore we wait until the stabilization, so the fundamentals can take effect. But it may happen next year," he said.

Stock market have left the day-to-day worse during the month of October, and ready to step toward a better November. A number of positive sentiment can be expected to encourage stock market direction, the better.

Throughout October, the stock market both global and local rise and fall was penetrate terburuknya point since the Great Abuse era 79 years ago. However, shares in Wall Street may finally close the month of October on the path to the green.

In trading Friday (31/10/2008), the index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed up 144.32 points (1.57%) to a level of 9325.01. Nasdaq also stronger 22.43 points (1.32%) to 1720.95 and the index level of the Standard & Poor's 500 rose 14.66 points (1.54%) to 968.75 level.

Meanwhile IHSG Stock Exchange in Indonesia in late October and significantly stronger after the auto rejection of the boundary opened up to 20%. IHSG closed stronger 82,841 points (7.06%) to the level of 1256.704. LQ 45 index rose 18,587 points (8.34%) to a level of 241,352.

Strengthening throughout the week occurred after the Central Bank from various parts of the world formed a partnership to mitigate the problem of liquidity difficulties. Including the swap agreement, which conducted the central bank.

What are local sentiment throughout this weekend?

* Monday, October 3 2008: Announcement of inflation figures by the Central Bureau of Statistics.
* Thursday, October 6 2008: Meeting of the Board of Governor of Bank Indonesia to determine the number of BI Rate.
* Out a number of financial reports emiten.


Meanwhile, global sentiment that can affect the movement of stock prices is:

U.S. election on Tuesday, 4 November 2008. Investors hope after the election there will be a new fiscal stimulus package or the new regulations to resolve the financial crisis in the U.S..

Friday, 7 November 2008: Release U.S. unemployment data. This figure is expected to give the U.S. economy: the more competitive, or is in the brink of recession.

Being a doctor for the countries of the financial crisis was not easy. The IMF is a source of loans for countries that need financial assistance is precisely the lack of funds.

As presented British PM Gordon Brown, the IMF now require hundreds of billions of dollars as additional funds to help countries that collapse the global financial crisis. Additional funds in an amount not less, it is necessary to prevent the spread of the impact of financial crisis.

"If we want to stop the spread of financial crisis, we need a global insurance policy to reduce the economic pressure," he said as cited by AFP, Sunday (2/11/2008).

Brown, calling the recent visits to Saudi Arabia in order to apply funds from countries that pump oil producers profit from the extraordinary increase in the price of crude oil. He also admitted will be happy to receive investment from financial institutions in the Bay area during the rules and conducted commercial.

"This is why I find additional sources of funds for the IMF-hundreds of billions of dollars more outside the U.S. $ 250 billion that they have provided on-loaned to countries that collapse because of the financial crisis," he added.

Additional funds of hundreds of billions of dollars are believed to be the IMF to Hungary, Ukraine, Iceland Dsn to increase their savings.

5. Maintaining sustainable balance of payments or foreign exchange by utilizing the bilateral swap Arrangement from the Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea and Bank of China if necessary.

6. Maintain the sustainability of the export to a guarantee against the risk of payment from buyers by providing facilities rediskonto export bill with recourse that apply from 1 November.

7. Maintaining economic sustainability, especially sekto real reduction in charges with the export of CPO to be zero percent per 1 November.

8. Maintain the sustainability of fiscal 2009. Steps will be taken to maintain the sustainability of the State Budget will be announced immediately after approval in the House to 2 days ahead (Thursday).

9. Importasi prevent illegal from 1 November. There are two first step, publish the provisions of certain commodities, namely importansi garment, electronics, food and beverages, children's toys and shoes, can only be imported by registered importers and verification obligations in the port of loading. Second, define the specific ports that are open to certain goods. Namely Tanjung Priok, Tanjung Golden, Tanjung Perak, Belawan, the Soekarno-Hatta Airport, Port and the Ban Juanda Makassar.

10. Improve supervision of goods with the outstanding form integrated task force between related institutions from 1 November.

The government set a 10-step in the stabilization of the economic situation for the global financial markets are weakening.

Ten steps is the result of the Cabinet meeting held on Tuesday (28/10/2008). The decision is read by Coordinating Minister for Economy at the same time the Ministry of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

Finance minister also accompanied by BI Governor Boediono, Menneg Owned Enterprises Sofyan Djalil and Mendag Mari Elka Pangestu.

"10 steps we do to maintain economic balance so that there is no interference, and that too many people to keep off from the impact of that is not profitable," said Sri Mulyani. Here are 10 steps:

1. Maintaining sustainable balance of payments or foreign exchange, to require all state-owned enterprises put all valasnya result in a bank in the country in 1 clearing house. SOEs are required to report information about the needs of foreign exchange earnings and to the office of state-owned enterprises and ministries transactions conducted through banks (Bank SOEs) are updated weekly and every day.

2. Maintaining sustainable balance of payments or foreign exchange, and accelerate infrastructure development by accelerating the implementation of the projects that have received financing commitment of both bilaterally and multilaterally.

3. Maintaining the stability of liquidity and prevent price war with the state-owned instructed not to transfer funds from bank to bank.

4. Maintaining confidence in the market against the perpetrators of the State Utanga do with the market stabilitsasi SUN namely the government, together with BI SUN purchase in the secondary market. Purchase back SUN done gradually, as measured in the amount.